Accepted: 2025-10-21
With the advancement of the "Belt and Road" initiative, China's investment in Africa has increased steadily in recent years, and trade volume has expanded continuously. However, due to the frequent occurrence of armed conflicts in Africa, the security of China's overseas interests in the region has become an increasingly prominent issue. Based on the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), this paper employs research methods such as kernel density analysis, hotspot analysis, and multi-distance spatial clustering analysis to explore the spatiotemporal evolution trends of armed conflict events in Africa from 1997 to 2024, as well as their risk impact on China's overseas interests. The analysis reveals several important results: 1) At present, armed conflicts in Africa are mainly concentrated in regions such as Sudan, Kenya, Somalia, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Morocco, and Tunisia, forming a pattern of multiple points of occurrence. In terms of organizational structure, the main driving forces behind these armed conflicts are armed opposition groups, terrorist organizations, and militia groups. Underlying factors such as ethnic differences, religious divisions, conflicts between farmers and herders, and competition for resources are the fundamental causes of these conflicts. 2) From 1997 to 2024, the spatial distribution of China's direct investment stock in Africa shows a transition from a "multi-point dispersed" pattern to a "relatively concentrated" one. Southern Africa, being distant from the core areas of conflict, is the most stable region for China's investment in Africa. In contrast, the escalating conflict situations in East, West, Central, and North Africa have gradually worsened the investment environment, leading to the continuous expansion of China's investment cold spots and revealing a clear tendency to avoid conflict-affected areas.3) Before 2011, armed conflict events in Africa involving China were relatively rare. However, since 2011, the number of such incidents has increased significantly. From a spatial perspective, the clustering of armed conflicts involving China has gradually intensified, with these clusters emerging in regions that were already severely affected by armed conflicts.In hotspot investment countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Kenya, Burundi, Somalia, and Uganda, armed conflicts have become a significant threat to China's overseas interests. Although China's investment scale in conflict-stricken areas such as Nigeria, Sudan, the Central African Republic, and Ethiopia is limited, the severe conflict situation in these regions still poses significant security risks. In the long term, if conflicts in Africa are not controlled effectively, China's investment confidence will be undermined, leading to a reduction in overseas expansion, delays in projects, and hindrance of the high-quality advancement of the "Belt and Road" strategy. This paper systematically analyzes the impact of armed conflicts on China's investment in Africa, revealing the change trend of investment layout from high-risk areas to more stable and secure regions, thus filling a gap in research on the relationship between investment security and conflicts. Furthermore, by delving into the risk characteristics of conflict events involving China's interests, this study not only provides an in-depth analysis of these risks but also proposes targeted policy recommendations, offering both theoretical support and practical guidance for mitigating the adverse effects of armed conflicts on China's overseas interests. These findings provide new perspectives for future research and offer practical references for China's investment decision-making and risk management in Africa.